The role of natural factors (part 2): Indian summer monsoon in climate change period—observation and CMIP5 models

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer via the DOI in this recordThis study discusses the role of natural factors and related teleconnections for Indian summer monsoon (ISM) with a special emphasis on later two decades of the last century. The combined influence of the sun and volcanos on ISM is examined using observational data as well as CMIP5 model outputs. Possible mechanisms relating to a disruption of the usual ENSO-ISM teleconnection for those decades are explored. Observation suggested that the regional Hadley circulation, via the NAO in the northern hemisphere and Indian Ocean Dipole in the southern hemisphere, may have a role in the change in ISM behaviour. Such features though captured well in the observation are shown missing in models. Additionally, it indicates that differences among models mainly originate in a regional level, which could be due to inconsistency in representing regional teleconnection features. Interestingly, all models perform reasonably well in terms of global thermodynamic scaling arguments. The overall study underpins important areas, where natural factors influence regional climate, but models miss out and suggest discrepancies among each other. Such knowledge has major implications in regional as well as global scale. The modelling community will also greatly benefit by an improved representation of ENSO and ISM in models

Association of the Indian summer monsoon with the northern hemisphere mid-latitude circulation

The association between the mid-latitude circulation and rainfall over the Indian region on an intraseasonal time-scale is investigated by considering 11 years (1974-1984) of Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential heights and rainfall data for the Indian summer monsoon months June through to September. On the basis of extensive correlation analysis between the geopotential heights and rainfall, it is seen that three regions over the mid-latitudes, the Manchurian region, the Algerian region and the Caspian sea region show positive correlation with rainfall over India, with higher values north of 20°N latitude. Lead and lag correlations between the heights at the locations identified above and rainfall over India reveals that some common element of low-frequency variability is influencing the mid-latitude circulation and Indian rainfall. On the interannual scale the connections between the winter-time low-frequency patterns (the Pacific/North Atlantic, the West Pacific Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Eurasian) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) are investigated. Only the West Pacific Oscillation pattern shows a significant relationship with the ISMR. Further, the interannual and the decadal variability is examined by using the Northern Hemisphere zonal index data for the period 1900-1993. Results reveal that the decadal-scale variability of the ISMR and the circulation features of the Northern Hemisphere are connected

Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature series over southwest Iran

This paper presents results of trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal precipitation, and mean temperature (TM), maximum temperature (TMAX) and minimum temperature (TMIN) time series of the period 1950-2007. Investigations were carried out for 50 precipitation stations and 39 temperature stations located in southwest Iran. Three statistical tests including Pettitt's test, Sequential Mann-Kendall test (SQ-MK test) and Mann-Kendall rank test (MK-test) were used for the analysis. The results obtained for precipitation series indicated that most stations showed insignificant trends in annual and seasonal series. Out of the stations which showed significant trends, highest numbers were observed during winter season while no significant trends were detected in summer precipitation. Moreover, no decreasing significant trends were detected by statistical tests in annual and seasonal precipitation series. The analysis of temperature trends revealed a significant increase during summer and spring seasons. TMAX was more stable than TMIN and TM, and winter was stable compared to summer, spring and autumn seasons. The results of change point detection indicated that most of the positive significant mutation points in TM, TMAX and TMIN began in the 1990s

Synoptic climatology of the daily 700 - mb summer monsoon flow pattern over India

The daily (mean of 0000 and 1200 GMT) 700 mb contour patterns over India are classified in five broad types for each summer monsoon month by using a chart-to-chart correlation method. Certain characteristics of these patterns, such as mutual transitions, persistence, preferred periods of occurrence and interrelationships are studied. Statistical probabilities of two threshold 24 h rainfall amounts (2.5 and 10 mm) being equated or exceeded for each type are computed for 107 stations, more or less uniformly distributed over India. This knowledge of the spatial distribution of precipitation probabilities associated with various circulation types can be used in forecasting probabilities of precipitation over the country if the circulation patterns can he forecast by numerical methods. These probabilities are then compared to the climatological and conditional probabilities of obtaining threshold rainfall amounts on different days of the subsequent 5-day period—given that the threshold rainfall occurred on the current day. The results, if averaged for all types and months, show that persistence is superior to the synoptic climatology developed in this study for forecasting precipitation probability for the next day over an regions and for forecasting precipitation probability up to 2–4 days—depending on region and threshold rainfall criteria. Synoptic climatology is superior to persistence as an aid for forecasting precipitation probability after 4 days over all the regions. Some shortcomings of the present study and future plans are described briefly

Anomalous behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon 2009

The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in the year 2009. India as a whole received 77 of its long period average during summer monsoon season (1 June to 30 September) of 2009, which is the third highest deficient all India monsoon season rainfall year during the period 1901-2009. Therefore, an attempt is made in this paper to study the characteristic features of summer monsoon rainfall of 2009 over the country and to investigate some of the possible causes behind the anomalous behaviour of the monsoon. Presence of El Niñno like conditions in the Pacific and warming over the equatorial Indian Ocean altered the circulation patterns and produced an anomalous low level convergence and ascending motion over the Indian Ocean region and large scale subsidence over the Indian landmass. Furthermore, the crossequatorial flow was weak, the monsoon was dominated by the slower 30-60 day mode, and the synoptic systems, which formed over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, did not move inland. All the above features resulted in less moisture supply over the Indian landmass, resulting in subdued rainfall activity leading to a severe monsoon drought during 2009

Teleconnections: Summer Monsoon over Korea and India

This study investigates the relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and India, by using correlation analysis and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). Results reveal that summer monsoon rainfall over Korea is negatively (significant at the 99 level) correlated with the rainfall over the northwest and central parts of India. In addition, coupled spatial modes between the rainfall over Korea and India have been identified by the SVD analysis. The squared covariance fraction explained by the first mode is 70 and the correlation coefficient between the time coefficients of the two fields is significant at the 99 level, indicating that the coupled mode reflects a large part of the interaction between the summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and India. The first mode clearly demonstrates the existence of a significant negative correlation between the rainfall over the northwest and central parts of India and the rainfall over Korea. Possible mechanisms of this correlation are investigated by analyzing the variation of upper-level atmospheric circulation associated with the Tibetan high using NCEP / NCAR Reanalysis data

Relationship between Soviet snow and Korean rainfall

In this study the statistical relationship between winter-spring Soviet snow depth and summer monsoon rainfall over South Korea has been investigated by lag correlation correlation coefficients and composite analysis. Data for the 1966-95 period are used. Results reveal that the winter/springtime snow depth over western Eurasia (over Kazakhstan) is negatively related, whereas the snow depth over eastern Eurasia (over Manchuria-eastern Siberia) is positively related with Korean monsoon rainfall. The dipole correlation pattern suggests that heavy snow over eastern Eurasia and light snow over western Eurasia is favourable, whereas the reverse situation is unfavourable for monsoon activity over South Korea. The NCEP-NCAR re-analyses data reveal that the dipole correlation configuration is indicative of a mid-latitude long-wave pattern with an anomalous ridge over north Asia during the winter prior to a weak Korean monsoon and an anomalous trough prior to a strong monsoon. The re-analyses data further suggest that the position, shape, and strength of the summertime North Pacific subtropical high and the low-level jet over the East Asian sector could be considerably influenced by the snow distribution over Eurasia

Intra-seasonal oscillations during monsoon 2002 and 2003

Features of the intra-seasonal oscillations during monsoon 2002, a drought year, and monsoon 2003, a normal year, have been examined by applying a frequency filter and the technique of wavelet analysis to rainfall data. Analysis reveals that while the faster 10-20 days mode dominated monsoon 2003, the slower 30-60 days mode dominated monsoon 2002

Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

Open Access at publisher's web site: http://www.springerlink.com/content/b682734237171631

Climate Dynamics: A Network-Based Approach for the Analysis of Global Precipitation

Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool to investigate the statistical interdependence of many interacting elements, is used here to analyze the spatial dynamics of annual precipitation over seventy years (1941-2010). The precipitation network is built associating a node to a geographical region, which has a temporal distribution of precipitation, and identifying possible links among nodes through the correlation function. The precipitation network reveals significant spatial variability with barely connected regions, as Eastern China and Japan, and highly connected regions, such as the African Sahel, Eastern Australia and, to a lesser extent, Northern Europe. Sahel and Eastern Australia are remarkably dry regions, where low amounts of rainfall are uniformly distributed on continental scales and small-scale extreme events are rare. As a consequence, the precipitation gradient is low, making these regions well connected on a large spatial scale. On the contrary, the Asiatic South-East is often reached by extreme events such as monsoons, tropical cyclones and heat waves, which can all contribute to reduce the correlation to the short-range scale only. Some patterns emerging between mid-latitude and tropical regions suggest a possible impact of the propagation of planetary waves on precipitation at a global scale. Other links can be qualitatively associated to the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. To analyze the sensitivity of the network to the physical closeness of the nodes, short-term connections are broken. The African Sahel, Eastern Australia and Northern Europe regions again appear as the supernodes of the network, confirming furthermore their long-range connection structure. Almost all North-American and Asian nodes vanish, revealing that extreme events can enhance high precipitation gradients, leading to a systematic absence of long-range patterns